An independent publication

Vol. I, No. 13 Afternoon Edition

The Fed Gazette

A civic journal of money and credit

Live Federal Reserve rates, FOMC decisions, speeches, and Treasury data, with every figure copied from the agency that published it.

FOMC schedule

FOMC Dot Plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

At the FOMC meeting of September 15–16, 2026, the median federal funds rate projection was 4.1 percent for the end of 2026 and 4.1 percent for the end of 2027, as the Federal Reserve Board published it.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC projection materials · Published · Updated

The Federal Reserve Board's Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot for each FOMC meeting stored here, newest first: medians, central tendencies and ranges for GDP, unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate, and how many participants sit at each rate.

These are the participants' own projections, copied as the Board published them. They are not a decision of the Committee and not a forecast by the Fed Gazette.

September 2026 FOMC projections: dot plot and economic forecasts

Projections made in conjunction with the meeting of September 15–16, 2026. FOMC meeting page · The Board's projection materials · Board page last updated September 16, 2026.

September 2026 dot plot: where participants see the federal funds rate

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate. Each dot is one participant. The same counts are in the table below.2026202720282029Longer run4.3754.2504.1254.0003.8753.7503.6253.5003.3753.2503.1253.0002.875

Each dot is one participant's projection. Rows are the midpoint of the target range or target level, in percent. Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level.

Midpoint (percent)2026202720282029Longer run
4.37548———
4.250—————
4.1251264——
4.000—————
3.8752—532
3.750————1
3.625—3372
3.500————2
3.375——121
3.250————2
3.125—1441
3.000————6
2.875———11

September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections: GDP, unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, September 2026. Percent. Projections of GDP growth and both inflation measures are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Median

The middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable2026202720282029Longer run
Change in real GDP2.32.42.22.12.0
June projection (Change in real GDP)2.22.32.2—2.0
Unemployment rate4.14.14.14.14.2
June projection (Unemployment rate)4.34.34.2—4.2
PCE inflation3.72.32.12.02.0
June projection (PCE inflation)3.62.32.0—2.0
Core PCE inflation3.42.52.22.0—
June projection (Core PCE inflation)3.32.52.1——
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate4.14.13.93.63.2
June projection (Federal funds rate)3.83.63.4—3.1

Central tendency

Excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. The Board's definition.

Variable2026202720282029Longer run
Change in real GDP2.2–2.42.2–2.62.1–2.32.0–2.22.0–2.2
June projection (Change in real GDP)2.0–2.32.0–2.42.0–2.3—1.8–2.0
Unemployment rate4.1–4.24.0–4.24.0–4.24.0–4.34.0–4.3
June projection (Unemployment rate)4.3–4.44.2–4.54.1–4.3—4.0–4.3
PCE inflation3.5–3.72.2–2.52.0–2.22.02.0
June projection (PCE inflation)3.5–3.72.2–2.52.0–2.1—2.0
Core PCE inflation3.3–3.42.3–2.62.0–2.22.0—
June projection (Core PCE inflation)3.2–3.52.3–2.62.0–2.2——
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate4.1–4.43.6–4.43.1–4.13.1–3.63.0–3.6
June projection (Federal funds rate)3.6–4.13.1–3.93.1–3.6—3.0–3.5

Range

Includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable2026202720282029Longer run
Change in real GDP2.1–2.62.0–2.91.8–2.61.8–2.41.7–2.5
June projection (Change in real GDP)1.8–2.61.9–2.91.8–2.6—1.7–2.5
Unemployment rate4.0–4.34.0–4.53.9–4.43.8–4.43.8–4.4
June projection (Unemployment rate)4.3–4.64.0–4.64.0–4.4—3.8–4.5
PCE inflation2.9–3.82.0–2.62.0–2.22.02.0
June projection (PCE inflation)2.7–4.11.9–2.82.0–2.3—2.0
Core PCE inflation2.8–3.52.1–2.72.0–2.32.0–2.1—
June projection (Core PCE inflation)2.6–3.52.0–3.02.0–2.4——
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.9–4.43.1–4.43.1–4.12.9–3.92.9–3.9
June projection (Federal funds rate)3.4–4.42.9–4.42.9–3.9—2.9–3.9
The Board's note on these tables

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and c ore PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The June projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 16–17, 2026. Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting; one of these 18 participants did not submit projections for 2028. Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the September 15–16, 2026, meeting; one of these 18 participants did not submit projections for 2028 and 2029.

June 2026 FOMC projections: dot plot and economic forecasts

Projections made in conjunction with the meeting of June 16–17, 2026. FOMC meeting page · The Board's projection materials · Board page last updated June 17, 2026.

June 2026 dot plot: where participants see the federal funds rate

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate. Each dot is one participant. The same counts are in the table below.202620272028Longer run4.3754.2504.1254.0003.8753.7503.6253.5003.3753.2503.1253.0002.875

Each dot is one participant's projection. Rows are the midpoint of the target range or target level, in percent. Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level.

Midpoint (percent)202620272028Longer run
4.37511——
4.250————
4.12552——
4.000————
3.8753531
3.750———1
3.6258251
3.500———1
3.3751322
3.250———1
3.125—462
3.000———7
2.875—112

June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections: GDP, unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, June 2026. Percent. Projections of GDP growth and both inflation measures are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Median

The middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP2.22.32.22.0
March projection (Change in real GDP)2.42.32.12.0
Unemployment rate4.34.34.24.2
March projection (Unemployment rate)4.44.34.24.2
PCE inflation3.62.32.02.0
March projection (PCE inflation)2.72.22.02.0
Core PCE inflation3.32.52.1—
March projection (Core PCE inflation)2.72.22.0—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.83.63.43.1
March projection (Federal funds rate)3.43.13.13.1

Central tendency

Excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP2.0–2.32.0–2.42.0–2.31.8–2.0
March projection (Change in real GDP)2.2–2.52.0–2.42.0–2.31.8–2.0
Unemployment rate4.3–4.44.2–4.54.1–4.34.0–4.3
March projection (Unemployment rate)4.3–4.54.2–4.44.0–4.44.0–4.3
PCE inflation3.5–3.72.2–2.52.0–2.12.0
March projection (PCE inflation)2.6–3.12.0–2.32.02.0
Core PCE inflation3.2–3.52.3–2.62.0–2.2—
March projection (Core PCE inflation)2.5–2.82.0–2.42.0—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.6–4.13.1–3.93.1–3.63.0–3.5
March projection (Federal funds rate)3.1–3.62.9–3.62.9–3.62.9–3.5

Range

Includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP1.8–2.61.9–2.91.8–2.61.7–2.5
March projection (Change in real GDP)2.1–2.72.0–2.71.8–2.71.7–2.5
Unemployment rate4.3–4.64.0–4.64.0–4.43.8–4.5
March projection (Unemployment rate)4.3–4.64.0–4.54.0–4.53.8–4.5
PCE inflation2.7–4.11.9–2.82.0–2.32.0
March projection (PCE inflation)2.3–3.31.8–2.41.9–2.22.0
Core PCE inflation2.6–3.52.0–3.02.0–2.4—
March projection (Core PCE inflation)2.2–3.02.0–2.52.0–2.2—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.4–4.42.9–4.42.9–3.92.9–3.9
March projection (Federal funds rate)2.6–3.62.4–3.92.6–3.92.6–3.9
The Board's note on these tables

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The March projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 17–18, 2026. Nineteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the March 17–18, 2026, meeting. Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting; one of these 18 participants did not submit projections for 2028.

March 2026 FOMC projections: dot plot and economic forecasts

Projections made in conjunction with the meeting of March 17–18, 2026. FOMC meeting page · The Board's projection materials · Board page last updated March 18, 2026.

March 2026 dot plot: where participants see the federal funds rate

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate. Each dot is one participant. The same counts are in the table below.202620272028Longer run3.8753.7503.6253.5003.3753.2503.1253.0002.8752.7502.6252.5002.375

Each dot is one participant's projection. Rows are the midpoint of the target range or target level, in percent. Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level.

Midpoint (percent)202620272028Longer run
3.875—111
3.750———1
3.6257331
3.500———1
3.3757432
3.250———1
3.1252673
3.000———5
2.8752332
2.750————
2.6251122
2.500————
2.375—1——

March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections: GDP, unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, March 2026. Percent. Projections of GDP growth and both inflation measures are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Median

The middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP2.42.32.12.0
December projection (Change in real GDP)2.32.01.91.8
Unemployment rate4.44.34.24.2
December projection (Unemployment rate)4.44.24.24.2
PCE inflation2.72.22.02.0
December projection (PCE inflation)2.42.12.02.0
Core PCE inflation2.72.22.0—
December projection (Core PCE inflation)2.52.12.0—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.43.13.13.1
December projection (Federal funds rate)3.43.13.13.0

Central tendency

Excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP2.2–2.52.0–2.42.0–2.31.8–2.0
December projection (Change in real GDP)2.1–2.51.9–2.31.8–2.11.8–2.0
Unemployment rate4.3–4.54.2–4.44.0–4.44.0–4.3
December projection (Unemployment rate)4.3–4.44.2–4.34.0–4.34.0–4.3
PCE inflation2.6–3.12.0–2.32.02.0
December projection (PCE inflation)2.3–2.52.0–2.22.02.0
Core PCE inflation2.5–2.82.0–2.42.0—
December projection (Core PCE inflation)2.4–2.62.0–2.22.0—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate3.1–3.62.9–3.62.9–3.62.9–3.5
December projection (Federal funds rate)2.9–3.62.9–3.62.8–3.62.8–3.5

Range

Includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest. The Board's definition.

Variable202620272028Longer run
Change in real GDP2.1–2.72.0–2.71.8–2.71.7–2.5
December projection (Change in real GDP)2.0–2.61.8–2.61.7–2.61.7–2.5
Unemployment rate4.3–4.64.0–4.54.0–4.53.8–4.5
December projection (Unemployment rate)4.2–4.64.0–4.54.0–4.53.8–4.5
PCE inflation2.3–3.31.8–2.41.9–2.22.0
December projection (PCE inflation)2.2–2.72.0–2.32.02.0
Core PCE inflation2.2–3.02.0–2.52.0–2.2—
December projection (Core PCE inflation)2.2–2.72.0–2.52.0—
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate2.6–3.62.4–3.92.6–3.92.6–3.9
December projection (Federal funds rate)2.1–3.92.4–3.92.6–3.92.6–3.9
The Board's note on these tables

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The December projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 9–10, 2025.

Frequently asked questions

What is the FOMC dot plot?

The dot plot is the Federal Reserve Board's chart of FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate. Each dot is one participant's projection of the appropriate midpoint of the target range at the end of a year or over the longer run. It is published with the Summary of Economic Projections.

What is the Summary of Economic Projections?

The Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, is a set of projections the Federal Reserve Board publishes after some FOMC meetings. It gives each participant's projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation and the federal funds rate, summarized as a median, a central tendency and a range.

Is the dot plot a forecast or a promise to change rates?

No. Each dot is an individual participant's own projection under what that participant judges appropriate policy. The Board says so in its notes, and the Fed Gazette makes no forecast of its own.

Which FOMC meetings have projections?

The Board's meeting calendar marks the meetings that come with a Summary of Economic Projections with an asterisk. The FOMC meeting schedule page on this site shows which ones those are.

Where do these figures come from?

They are copied, as published, from the Federal Reserve Board's projection materials for each meeting. The latest stored here is for the meeting of September 15–16, 2026.