An independent publication

Vol. I, No. 6 Afternoon Edition

The Fed Gazette

A civic journal of money and credit

Live Federal Reserve rates, FOMC decisions, speeches, and Treasury data, with every figure copied from the agency that published it.

Public outlook

Fed Rate Decision Odds: What the Public Expects

Polymarket prices No change at 82.5% and 25 bps increase at 16.5% for the next FOMC decision (Oct 6, 2026, 3:39 PM PT). Not a Gazette forecast.

Source: Polymarket · Published · Updated

A live read of what traders on Polymarket expect from the Federal Open Market Committee at its next meeting: hold, hike, or cut. These are market prices, not a forecast by the Gazette, and not the view of the Federal Reserve.

Public outlook: the next Fed decision

Polymarket

Prediction-market prices, not a Gazette forecast

Traders on Polymarket buy and sell shares on each outcome of the next FOMC meeting. A share pays $1 if its outcome happens, so a price of 19.5 cents is shown here as 19.5%. These are Polymarket’s prices as it reports them, with the decimal point moved two places for display. The Gazette does not add them up, adjust them, or add a view of its own.

Fed Decision in October?

Hold

  • No change 82.5%

Hike

  • 25 bps increase 16.5%
  • 50+ bps increase 0.35%

Cut

  • 50+ bps decrease 0.15%
  • 25 bps decrease 0.45%

Source: Polymarket, Gamma API, event prices · As of · Retrieved . Polymarket is a separate company. Its prices move with trading and are not the views of the Federal Reserve or of this paper.

Polymarket prices by outcome, since the market opened

One line per outcome of the next FOMC decision market. Each point is the last Polymarket price stored for that UTC day, shown as a percent. These are prediction-market prices, not a Gazette forecast.

0%20%40%60%80%100%Jul 26Aug 26Sep 26Oct 260%20%40%60%80%100%Jul 26Aug 26Sep 26Oct 26
  • Hold: No change 82.5% Oct 6, 2026
  • Hike: 25 bps increase 16.5% Oct 6, 2026
  • Hike: 50+ bps increase 0.35% Oct 6, 2026
  • Cut: 50+ bps decrease 0.15% Oct 6, 2026
  • Cut: 25 bps decrease 0.45% Oct 6, 2026

Source: Polymarket, CLOB API, price history · as of · retrieved

Data
Polymarket Yes price by UTC day, newest first, shown as a percent
DayHold: No changeHike: 25 bps increaseHike: 50+ bps increaseCut: 50+ bps decreaseCut: 25 bps decrease
Oct 6, 202682.5%16.5%0.35%0.15%0.45%
Oct 5, 202682.5%16.5%0.45%0.25%0.45%
Oct 4, 202682.5%17.5%0.45%0.25%0.45%
Oct 3, 202682.5%17.5%0.45%0.25%0.45%
Oct 2, 202674.5%25.5%0.45%0.25%0.45%
Oct 1, 202665.5%33.5%0.55%0.25%0.45%
Sep 30, 202655.5%43.5%0.65%0.25%0.45%
Sep 29, 202630.5%68.5%1.05%0.25%0.45%
Sep 28, 202633.5%64.5%0.85%0.25%0.45%
Sep 27, 202633.5%64.5%0.85%0.25%0.45%
Sep 26, 202636.5%62.5%0.85%0.25%0.45%
Sep 25, 202632.5%66.5%1.05%0.25%0.55%
Sep 24, 202634.5%64.5%0.85%0.25%0.55%
Sep 23, 202645.5%52.5%0.75%0.25%0.55%
Sep 22, 202646.5%52.5%0.85%0.25%0.55%
Sep 21, 202643.5%54.5%0.85%0.35%0.55%
Sep 20, 202643.5%54.5%0.85%0.35%0.55%
Sep 19, 202643.5%54.5%0.85%0.35%0.55%
Sep 18, 202649.5%50.5%0.65%0.35%0.65%
Sep 17, 202653.5%45.5%0.75%0.35%0.85%
Sep 16, 202660.5%37.5%0.9%0.55%1.9%
Sep 15, 202661.5%36.5%0.85%0.35%2.25%
Sep 14, 202661.5%37.5%0.8%0.7%2.05%
Sep 13, 202661.5%37.5%1%0.8%2.15%
Sep 12, 202661.5%37.5%0.85%0.5%1.45%
Sep 11, 202665.5%33.5%0.95%0.35%2.3%
Sep 10, 202667.5%30.5%0.9%0.45%3.55%
Sep 9, 202667.5%30.5%0.85%0.45%2.35%
Sep 8, 202667.5%29.5%0.85%0.5%3.35%
Sep 7, 202667.5%27.5%0.8%0.55%3.9%
Sep 6, 202667.5%27.5%0.75%0.55%4%
Sep 5, 202667.5%27.5%0.75%0.65%4.5%
Sep 4, 202670.5%26.5%0.75%0.65%4.35%
Sep 3, 202670.5%26.5%0.75%1.1%3.65%
Sep 2, 202670.5%26.5%0.75%0.95%3.35%
Sep 1, 202670.5%26.5%0.75%1.05%3.35%
Aug 31, 202670.5%26.5%0.75%1.1%3.55%
Aug 30, 202670.5%26.5%0.8%1.5%3.25%
Aug 29, 202670.5%25.5%0.95%1.2%3.65%
Aug 28, 202671.5%23.5%1.05%1.35%3.65%
Aug 27, 202671.5%23.5%1.2%1.15%4.15%
Aug 26, 202671.5%24.5%1.15%1.25%4.25%
Aug 25, 202671.5%24.5%1.05%1.25%4.25%
Aug 24, 202671.5%24.5%0.9%1.15%4.45%
Aug 23, 202671.5%24.5%0.75%1.15%4.5%
Aug 22, 202671.5%23.5%0.65%1.05%4.15%
Aug 21, 202671.5%23.5%0.65%1.1%3.95%
Aug 20, 202671.5%23.5%0.65%1.05%4.15%
Aug 19, 202671.5%23.5%0.85%1.05%4.4%
Aug 18, 202671.5%23.5%0.95%1.45%4.45%
Aug 17, 202671.5%23.5%0.95%1.5%4.6%
Aug 16, 202671.5%23.5%0.95%1.55%4.25%
Aug 15, 202671.5%23.5%1.1%1.6%3.5%
Aug 14, 202671%23.5%1%1.35%4.5%
Aug 13, 202667.5%23.5%2.05%1.85%6.5%
Aug 12, 202667.5%24.5%2.05%1.9%6.5%
Aug 11, 202667.5%24.5%2.15%1.9%6.5%
Aug 10, 202667.5%24.5%2.15%1.6%6.5%
Aug 9, 202667.5%23.5%2.15%1.6%6.5%
Aug 8, 202667.5%23.5%2.15%1.45%6.5%
Aug 7, 202668.5%22.5%2.5%1.25%5.5%
Aug 6, 202668.5%22.5%2.45%1.35%4.5%
Aug 5, 202668.5%22.5%2.55%1.5%5.5%
Aug 4, 202668.5%22.5%2.5%1.5%5.5%
Aug 3, 202668.5%22.5%2.5%1.85%5.5%
Aug 2, 202668.5%22.5%1.35%1.85%5.5%
Aug 1, 202668.5%22.5%1.35%1.85%6.5%
Jul 31, 202669.5%22.5%1.35%2.05%7.5%
Jul 30, 202663.5%22.5%1.4%2.2%7.5%
Jul 29, 202660.5%23.5%9.5%
Jul 28, 202660.5%23.5%1.25%2.3%9.5%
Jul 27, 202659.5%24%1.2%2.3%8.5%
Jul 26, 202654.5%30.5%1.25%2.3%8.5%
Jul 25, 202653.5%31.5%1.25%2.3%9.5%
Jul 24, 202653.5%31.5%1.25%2.3%9.5%
Jul 23, 202660.5%30.5%0.95%2.5%8.5%
Jul 22, 202661.5%25%1.35%4.75%10.5%
Jul 21, 202662.5%19.5%1.35%5.35%10.5%
Jul 20, 202660.5%19.5%1.1%2.25%10%
Jul 19, 202665.5%18.5%0.9%1.9%7.5%
Jul 18, 202666.5%17.5%0.85%1.95%7.5%
Jul 17, 202668%17.5%0.85%1.95%8.5%
Jul 16, 202666%23.5%0.95%1.9%9.5%
Jul 15, 202658%25%1.35%1.85%10%
Jul 14, 202668.5%17.5%0.65%1.25%11.5%
Jul 13, 202671%16%1.35%1.5%10%
Jul 12, 202670.5%15.5%1.45%1.45%13%
Jul 11, 202671%15.5%1.55%1.6%12.5%
Jul 10, 202670.5%15.5%1.55%1.6%12%
Jul 9, 202670.5%13.5%1.55%1.6%12.5%
Jul 8, 202669.5%14%1.55%1.85%14.5%
Jul 7, 202667.5%12%2.45%1.9%14.5%
Jul 6, 202667.5%15%3.95%2.55%10.5%
Jul 5, 202667.5%16%3.95%2.55%10.5%
Jul 4, 202667.5%15.5%3.95%2.55%10.5%
Jul 3, 202667.5%16.5%3.95%2.55%10.5%
Jul 2, 202664.5%16.5%3.95%2.7%10.5%
Jul 1, 202664.5%16.5%3.95%2.55%10.5%
Jun 30, 202661.5%16.5%4.25%2.7%10%
Jun 29, 202658.5%22%1.35%2.45%10.5%
Jun 28, 202658.5%22%1.05%2.45%10.5%
Jun 27, 202658.5%24.5%1.45%2.45%10.5%
Jun 26, 202657.5%28.5%1.45%2.45%10.5%
Jun 25, 202658.5%29.5%1.45%2.45%9.5%
Jun 24, 202658.5%30.5%1.25%2%9.5%
Jun 23, 202659.5%30.5%1.45%1.85%10%
Jun 22, 202659.5%29.5%2.3%2.8%9.5%
Jun 21, 202659.5%29.5%2.5%2.6%9.5%
Jun 20, 202659.5%29.5%2.05%3.5%9.5%
Jun 19, 202658.5%22.5%3.5%5.5%10.5%
Jun 18, 202648%48%